The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops has been going on for a week now, but Kyiv has deployed only a small part of the trained units, and the main battles are still ahead, Western analysts say.
Literally Reuters : “After a week of fierce fighting, the real test of Kiev’s counter-offensive is yet to come, as Ukrainian troops are at a certain distance from the main line of defense of Russia, and the bulk of the forces prepared for the offensive are still on standby.”
Details : A Polish military analyst who closely follows the war, Konrad Muzyka, says that Ukraine has now deployed only 3 of the 12 brigades trained for the counteroffensive.
According to analysts, Ukraine has created 12 armored brigades to carry out the counter-offensive operation, nine of which were trained and equipped by the West. A brigade usually has at least 3,500-4,000 troops. Kyiv also stated that the Interior Ministry had trained 8 assault brigades out of 40,000 soldiers.
Analysts say Ukraine’s main forces are concentrated near the town of Orekhiv in the Zaporozhye region and Velyka Novoselka in the Donetsk region, about 80 kilometers to the east.
“This may indicate that the Ukrainian generals have their eyes on Tokmak, an occupied city in the Zaporozhye region, located about 25 km from the front line. Another 50 km is the city of Melitopol. Both settlements are well fortified,” writes Reuters.
The publication recalls that near Velyka Novoselka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated a group of four villages.
According to Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar, the troops advanced 6.5 km and recaptured 90 square kilometers. km of territory along the 100-kilometer section of the southern front line. On Wednesday, she reported a further advance of 300-350 meters in various sections over the past 24 hours.
Music believes that at first the counter-offensive was going reasonably well, but after 5 or 6 days of starting this main phase, progress seems to have stalled. But why this happened, the analyst does not know.
Reuters writes that the counteroffensive is complicated by a lack of air power. Kyiv has been lobbying the West for months for F-16 fighter jets, but has yet to receive them.
It is also reported that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has already called Kyiv’s counter-offensive a failure and one that led to heavy losses.
At the same time, according to Muzyka, Ukraine may have lost up to 15% of its Bradleys and a few percent of its Leopard 2 tanks, but it is also possible that some of these vehicles were taken by Ukrainian troops and sent for repairs.
Meanwhile, military analyst Jack Watling for the RUSI research center stressed that it is too early to tell whether the offensive will succeed or fail.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive began about a week ago. But Russia was also preparing for it and equipped thousands of defensive positions – from temporarily seized territories in eastern Ukraine to the occupied Crimea: these are minefields, and anti-tank ditches, and rows of concrete “dragon’s teeth” barricades, and trenches.
These positions, which Reuters analyzed via satellite imagery in April, are reported to be largely concentrated in the strategically important south, where Kiev is likely seeking to cut off Russian land links to the peninsula and thus split the Kremlin’s forces.
Source : Українська Правда
